Tropical Storm Bonnie Might Develop This Week

Paul Yeager
Contributor

(July 20) -- The weather has been fairly quiet on the tropical front since Hurricane Alex and a near tropical storm moved across the western Gulf of Mexico earlier this summer, but that's beginning to change. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean for possible development, one that could become the second named storm of the Atlantic season during the next couple of days.

The storm would be called Bonnie and could affect Florida and the Gulf of Mexico late this week through the weekend, after first moving through the Caribbean.

As of early Tuesday afternoon, National Hurricane Center meteorologists were giving the system a 60 percent chance of developing into an organized tropical cyclone, which means at least a tropical depression (a tropical low pressure system with sustained winds of no more than 38 mph) or a tropical storm (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) within the next 48 hours.

The likelihood of the system strengthening enough to become Bonnie has increased today; the disturbance started to become better organized and is in a region where overall conditions will be conducive for development. Still, according to National Hurricane Center experts, it does not yet have a closed circulation, which is necessary for an organized tropical system. In addition, the developing system will continue to interact with Caribbean islands, which could slow development.

Whether it organizes and strengthens enough to become Bonnie, it will bring heavy rain to the islands, including Haiti, during the next few days as it moves northwestward. Rainfall in excess of 8 inches can fall during a short period of time, especially in mountainous areas, resulting in the risk of life-threatening flash flooding.

The system is expected to move west-northwest over the next several days, a track that would threaten Florida and the Gulf of Mexico during the latter part of the week and into the weekend. The details of the threat, including the potential intensity of the system and the precise path, are not yet being projected by the hurricane center.

The familiar forecast cone will not be issued until (and unless) the system is upgraded to at least a tropical depression.

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