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The Miami Heat got Bam Adebayo back for Game 4, but were unable to come away with the win in a tight contest. Can they get a victory in Friday's Game 5 and extend the series?
The Miami Heat finally have one of their injured stars back – but it might be too late for them to defy NBA odds and rally for an NBA championship.
The Heat are down 3-1 in the NBA Finals entering Friday's Game 5 against the powerhouse Los Angeles Lakers, who moved to the cusp of capturing their 17th NBA title with a 102-96 victory in Game 4.
That game featured the return of Miami center Bam Adebayo from a neck strain, but it's unlikely he'll be joined Friday by point guard Goran Dragic, who has missed the past three games after suffering a torn plantar fascia in his left foot in Game 1.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Heat vs. Lakers on October 9.
LAL
MIAMI HEAT VS LOS ANGELES LAKERS BETTING PREVIEW
NBA Finals Odds to Win Series
Miami: +1,800
Los Angeles: -10,000
Injuries
Miami: PG Goran Dragic (Doubtful).
Los Angeles: None.
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
The Lakers are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Lakers.
AGAINST THE SPREAD (ATS) PICK
The Lakers come into their first shot at an NBA title as seven-point favorites, slightly lower than the -7.5 spread they had in Game 4. But the Heat have shown the past two games that they can be quite competitive, winning their only game of the series Sunday and keeping things interesting until the stretch run on Tuesday.
And even without Dragic, who will likely miss Friday's game (though he might test out the injury prior to the game), the Heat are much more well-prepared to handle the Lakers with Adebayo back in the fold. Adebayo had 15 points in 33 minutes and was one of only three Miami players with a positive plus-minus – and you can expect him to see all the minutes he can handle Friday.
This might be the end of a wild 2019-20 basketball season, but not without another cover-worthy effort from the underdogs.
PREDICTION: Miami +7 (-110)
OVER/UNDER PICK
After bettors watched Game 3 fall a half-point shy of the total, the Game 4 result was much more decisive as the teams combined for a series-low 198 points – 20 below the final number.
The defensive intensity has ratcheted up as you might expect, with neither team surpassing 45 percent shooting from the floor Tuesday. And the game pace slowed to a relative crawl, with both teams finishing with fewer than 80 shot attempts. Expect more of that greater commitment to defense, especially with Adebayo back to help keep Lakers superstar Anthony Davis in check.
Oddsmakers have lowered the Game 5 total to the mid-210s, but that still doesn't feel low enough.
PREDICTION: Under 216 (-110)
PLAYER PROP PICK
If this series continues (and even possibly goes seven games), it will be hard to ignore Jimmy Butler as the NBA Finals MVP whether the Heat win or lose. Butler has single-handedly willed Miami through the past three games, averaging 29.0 points. 9.7 rebounds and 11.7 assists while playing all but 11 minutes.
That assist average is the focus here: With Dragic expected to be out yet again, Butler's usage rate will once again be off the charts. He'll be the team's primary ball-handler and shouldn't have any trouble surpassing his assist total in a game the Heat need to win in order to stay alive.
PREDICTION: Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 Assists (-140)
HEAT VS LAKERS BETTING CARD
- Miami +7 (-110)
- Under 216 (-110)
- Jimmy Butler Over 7.5 Assists (-140)
